244 ExpertiseVehicles 116 (2018) Heft 7 than road transport (32%). The modal split remains almost unchanged due to similar growth rates. The total installed electric power of the eight markets over the years from 2015 to 2030 is forecast to increase by 20%. Renewable energies are expected to increase as installed capacity by a total of 83% due to strong future expansion. The installed capacity of conventional energy sources is expected to fall by a total of 27%. If conventional power stations still accounted for 57% of installed capacity in 2015, the share is expected to fall to 35% by 2030. By contrast, renewable energies will dominate in the future and will account for 65% of installed capacity by 2030. In total 132 measures could be identified in the strategic transport policy documents of the eight markets. A total of 40 of the 132 measures identified were linked to quantified impact potentials, with regard to relocation of transport, potential energy savings or possible GHG reductions. Table 2 summarizes the potential effects of the identified measures. To this end, the five most frequently mentioned types of measures were first grouped into four categories (infrastructural, regulatory, economic, technological), and then potential effects of the individual measures were assigned on the basis of a qualitative evaluation. The determination of the potential for action was carried out by means of the strategic documents of the member states and was supplemented by expert interviews. At the right bottom of the table the points are summed up horizontally and vertically. On the left side of Table 2, the frequencies of the measures mentioned are listed in the four categories. In this type of qualitative assessment, it should be noted that, due to the small number of potential action measures, it can only be a basic classification showing important trends. On the other hand, the actual impact potentials of the individual measures in the countries can vary widely as the country-specific structures in freight traffic, the strategic environment and the interaction of the measures diverge and, moreover, are constantly changing. The greatest potential is offered by measures for improving traffic and modal shift. These economic measures are evaluated with the highest potential of impact. In particular, the structure of the user charges for infrastructure - track charges in rail, and truck tolls in road freight transport- as well as the pricing of fuels are shown in Table 2 as effective control elements for traffic avoidance, shifting and improvement. When looking at the number of occurrences of measures proclaimed in Table 2 (figures at the left column), it is noticeable that in the strategic documents of the member states the economic and regulatory measures are mentioned least frequently. 5 Deriving guidelines for the decarbonization of freight transport In order to be able to contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions in the European freight transport sector in the short, medium and long term, far-reaching measures have to be taken on the basis of the findings of this work. In the evaluated countries, a wide range and variety of measures could be identified. If implemented across Europe, strong improvements towards green freight transport could be triggered. The greatest impact can be achieved by improving the existing and developing alternative systems. In addition, there is big potential in the measures to shift transport to rail. The five points shown in Figure 5 are identified as key elements of the future path to the decarbonization of freight traffic. These core elements can be used to develop guidelines for the GHG-neutral development of freight transport in Europe, which are briefly outlined below. Creation of structures for freight shifting to railways In order to achieve a higher modal split share for rail, at the same time as freight volumes are rising, it is essential to create and improve the necessary infrastructural and logistical framework conditions for rail freight traffic. In addition, the competitiveness of rail freight transport needs to be strengthened. In order to exploit the full potential of the rail, additional measures would have to be implemented supporting the measures already taken and planned in the countries´ strategies. Use potentials of growing renewable energy sector Support structures to shift freights to rail Support alternative drive technologies and power sources for road freight Increase efficiency of road freight traffic Increase efficiency of rail freight traffic Key elements of strategic guidelines Figure 5: Key elements of strategic guidelines. b Probeheft zur Ansicht
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